With just three games remaining in the Premier League season, the race for the top five is reaching a thrilling climax. Chelsea and Newcastle United are level on 63 points, both boasting identical +21 goal differences. Yet, it’s Newcastle who hold the advantage in the standings. As the two sides prepare for a potentially season-defining clash, fans are asking: Why exactly are Newcastle above Chelsea in the table?
This article will explore the reasons behind Newcastle’s current edge, assess both teams’ form, analyze their strengths and weaknesses, and delve into the implications of this Sunday’s lunchtime showdown.
A Tense Race for Champions League Football
The Top Five Now Holds Greater Value
In previous seasons, the top four places guaranteed UEFA Champions League qualification. However, under the new UEFA coefficient system, the Premier League has earned an additional Champions League slot this year. That means finishing in the top five will now provide access to Europe’s elite competition.
This change has added extra spice to an already competitive campaign. Teams like Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United, and Brighton are breathing down the necks of Chelsea and Newcastle, making every point and goal absolutely vital.
Newcastle vs Chelsea: The Battle on a Knife-Edge
The Current Standings
As of this week, the Premier League table shows the following for the two clubs:
- Newcastle United: 63 points, +21 goal difference, 66 goals scored
- Chelsea FC: 63 points, +21 goal difference, 62 goals scored
Despite being tied on points and goal difference, Newcastle are technically ahead due to having scored more goals. In accordance with Premier League rules, when teams are level on points and goal difference, the next deciding factor is goals scored—which places the Magpies in fourth and Chelsea in fifth.
Understanding the Premier League Tiebreakers
How the Rules Work
The Premier League uses the following criteria to separate teams:
- Total Points
- Goal Difference
- Goals Scored
- Head-to-Head Points (if still level after 38 games)
- Head-to-Head Goal Difference
- Playoff Match (if needed for crucial positions like the title, Europe, or relegation)
With three games left, Newcastle’s superior attacking record gives them a narrow lead. Should both teams end the season equal in points, goal difference, and goals scored, head-to-head records will come into play.
Form Guide: Who’s Peaking at the Right Time?
Chelsea’s Recent Resurgence
Under Mauricio Pochettino, Chelsea appear to have found momentum at the perfect time. The Blues are on a five-match winning streak across all competitions, including an eye-catching 3-1 victory over newly crowned champions Liverpool at Stamford Bridge.
Key Performers
- Cole Palmer: The former Manchester City man returned to scoring form, contributing vital goals and assists. His creativity and composure have been instrumental in Chelsea’s late surge.
- Nicolas Jackson & Conor Gallagher: Providing attacking support and energy in midfield.
- Moisés Caicedo & Enzo Fernández: Beginning to control games better, offering solidity and vision.
Chelsea’s Last 5 Matches (All Competitions)
- Chelsea 3-1 Liverpool
- Brighton 0-2 Chelsea
- Chelsea 1-0 West Ham
- Chelsea 2-1 Brentford
- Chelsea 4-2 Manchester United
Pochettino’s side has tightened up at the back while becoming more clinical up front, a transformation driven by better cohesion and tactical discipline.
Newcastle’s Grit and Consistency
Eddie Howe’s Newcastle have also been in excellent form. Despite a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa three weeks ago, the Magpies have secured five wins in their last seven league outings.
Last weekend, they were held to a 1-1 draw by Brighton at the Amex Stadium, with Alexander Isak converting a late penalty to salvage a point. That resilience has been a hallmark of Howe’s side throughout the campaign.
Key Performers
- Alexander Isak: Emerging as one of the Premier League’s standout strikers with his speed, movement, and goal-scoring touch.
- Bruno Guimarães: The midfield general pulling strings and anchoring transitions.
- Anthony Gordon & Jacob Murphy: Providing width and relentless pressing.
Newcastle’s Last 5 Premier League Matches
- Newcastle 1-1 Brighton
- Burnley 1-3 Newcastle
- Newcastle 4-0 Sheffield United
- Newcastle 5-1 Tottenham
- Crystal Palace 1-0 Newcastle
Though inconsistent defensively at times, Newcastle’s potent attack has made the difference when it matters most.
Head-to-Head: Newcastle vs Chelsea This Season
Previous Meetings
The sides have already faced each other twice in the 2024/25 season:
- Premier League at Stamford Bridge: Chelsea 2-1 Newcastle
- Carabao Cup (3 days later): Newcastle 2-0 Chelsea
This means both teams have one win apiece over each other this season. However, should the teams remain tied on points, goal difference, and goals scored, and the head-to-head tiebreaker is triggered after the season ends, Newcastle’s cup win won’t count—it’s the league meetings that matter.
If Chelsea beat Newcastle in the upcoming fixture, they would hold the advantage in head-to-head league results, having won both matches.
Tactical Analysis
Chelsea’s Tactical Evolution
Pochettino has transformed Chelsea into a pressing-oriented side with fluid attacking patterns. The 4-2-3-1 formation has allowed creative players like Palmer and Gallagher to influence the game between the lines, while wingbacks stretch the play.
However, defensive lapses have occasionally undermined their progress. Their back line has improved in recent weeks, but inconsistency remains an issue.
Newcastle’s Tactical Identity
Newcastle operate predominantly in a 4-3-3, emphasizing direct transitions, pressing from the front, and compact defending. Howe has drilled a clear system, allowing them to impose physicality and pace on opponents.
The midfield trio of Guimarães, Joelinton, and Longstaff provides balance, while Isak thrives in space created by their high-energy wing play.
Statistical Comparison: Chelsea vs Newcastle
| Category | Chelsea | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 63 | 63 |
| Goal Difference | +21 | +21 |
| Goals Scored | 62 | 66 |
| Goals Conceded | 41 | 45 |
| Clean Sheets | 11 | 9 |
| Top Scorer | Cole Palmer (18) | Alexander Isak (17) |
While Chelsea have been slightly tighter defensively, Newcastle’s superior attacking output is the defining factor at this stage.
What’s at Stake on Sunday?
A Match That Could Define the Season
The magnitude of the upcoming clash cannot be overstated. With Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa close behind, dropping points at this stage could be catastrophic for either side’s Champions League ambitions.
Key Match Details
- Date: Sunday, May 11, 2025
- Time: 12:00pm UK time
- Venue: St. James’ Park
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Live Stream: Discovery+ app
With home advantage, Newcastle may feel slightly more confident, but Chelsea’s form gives them real belief.
Psychological Edge: Momentum vs Pressure
Chelsea are entering this match riding high on momentum. Their recent victories over top teams have rebuilt confidence that was lacking earlier in the season.
Newcastle, however, will be relying on their superb home form and the electric atmosphere at St. James’ Park. They have shown that they can step up when it matters, but cracks in their defensive armor may give Chelsea an opening.
What Happens If the Teams Finish Level?
If both clubs finish on equal points, equal goal difference, and equal goals scored after 38 games, then the Premier League would refer to head-to-head league results. If those are also level (one win each and equal aggregate score), a playoff match at a neutral venue could be arranged if qualification for European competition is at stake.
Such a scenario, while rare, is mathematically possible and would be an extraordinary conclusion to an already thrilling season.
Conclusion
Newcastle currently sit above Chelsea in the Premier League because they have scored more goals—66 compared to the Blues’ 62. With the teams tied on both points and goal difference, that attacking output makes all the difference under Premier League tiebreaking rules.
However, with a high-stakes encounter looming and three matches remaining, the balance of power could shift quickly. Both teams are playing well, but only one can seize the upper hand. The outcome of Sunday’s showdown at St. James’ Park could determine who secures a coveted Champions League spot—and who is left to rue what might have been.
In the most competitive Premier League campaign in recent memory, every goal, every tackle, and every moment counts. All eyes now turn to Sunday.
